Forecasting

In an average year, high temperatures kill more people in the United States than all other weather-related phenomena combined (NOAA 2016), and in New York City two-thirds of heat-related deaths occur at home. Those most at risk are the ill and elderly, who tend to be home throughout the day. Yet few studies capture indoor residential temperatures in non-air-conditioned homes. 

Meningitis epidemics have a devastating impact on the region and its people. Even with treatment, the fatality rate can exceed 10%, and 10%–20% of survivors experience long-term after effects including brain damage and hearing loss. Meningitis can push a family into severe poverty, which is especially significant in a region where the annual per capita income ranges from US$500 to US$1500. Weather forecasting can play a significant role in vaccination campaigns and prioritize where vaccines should be delivered. 

BAMS recently spoke with Tim Palmer about his new book, The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World.

Andrew N. Staniforth's new book provides a comprehensive and unified account of the fundamental equations for climate and weather prediction models, emphasizing generality, scientific rigor, and unification in atmospheric and oceanic modeling.

In this webinar, Phil Klotzbach discusses how active the season was, notable storms and impacts, and controversial topics such as the value of the Saffir-Simpson scale and the Cone of Uncertainty.
 

Bow echoes indicate the potential for severe weather. Ted Best documents the evolution of a bow echo MCS across southern Minnesota. 

Join Matthew Cappucci of the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang as he describes his path to success, offers advice for building your career your way, and reflects on what the meteorologist of the future will be like. 

Meet Justin Pullin: deputy chief of staff, NWS; and chair on AMS board for early career professionals. 

Scientists have encountered difficulty determining long-term hurricane trends “Only hurricanes that affected people’s lives were known and reported,” notes Suzana Camargo of Columbia University. However, Camargo and colleagues created an algorithm that identified tropical cyclones back to 1850 in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, which uses historical global climate observations to reconstruct weather patterns.

Explore how Penn State’s online Weather Forecasting Certificate program can turn weather enthusiasts and those who work in weather-related careers into weather information power users to enhance their hobbies or careers.
 

Did you know that snow can fall at temperatures above freezing? In this presentation from the 2022 AMS Weather Band Community and Citizen Science Symposium, Jeff Uhlik describes the impact of community engagement through the Tahoe Rain or Snow project. The group is working to reduce inaccuracies in determining precipitation type by estimating the temperature of the rain-snow boundary, which is used in weather forecasts and hydrologic models. With help from Tahoe Rain or Snow weather spotters, they have been able to record evidence of snow consistently falling at above-freezing temperatures in the Sierra Nevada. This project is now expanding in 21/22 to include many parts of the Western US.

In this presentation from the 2022 AMS Weather Band Community and Citizen Science Symposium, Craig Lowe shows how Bahamian Storm and Hurricane Interceptors came to be and what they do to assist The Bahamas Department of Meteorology and The National Emergency Management Agency with valuable information on active Weather Threats.

Join Mallory Brooke of Nor'Easter Weather Consulting as she takes us inside the weather and the ski industry to look at teleconnections, forecasting tools, and how forecasts are used for events like the World Cup at Killington. This will also include a deeper dive into different weather issues and their impacts at the World Cup years 2016-2019.

Behind the bloody beaches of D-Day and the deathly bloom of mushroom clouds in the bright desert, behind supercomputers and the weather app on your phone, there is a mainly unrecognized group of young women who wielded the power of math to change the course of history. 

Weather spotters play an important role in the severe weather warning system. Since the 1970s, the National Weather Service (NWS) has trained citizens to collect, confirm, verify, or supplement radar and other data, thus, “serving as the nation’s first line of defense against severe weather.” Today, “SKYWARN,” is a volunteer program with over 350,000 trained spotters. The network includes police and fire personnel, 911 dispatchers, emergency management workers, public utility workers, and other concerned citizens.

I tend to go overboard for books. I value my library card more than my driver’s license. But then, I’m a book addict. 

There are so many books on meteorology that it can stagger the mind. You really don’t need to read a ton of books if you are an amateur, but you should get some orientation and familiarity with terms and processes.

Dive into the fascinating history of weather maps with Barbara Mayes Boustead. In this presentation she reveals the science and process of hand analysis and discusses its relevance in a world of digital maps. 

I am approaching this particular blog post with a bit of consternation and reservation. Most of us are so enthralled by the progression of daily weather that we become amateur weather observers.